For the class of 2002, nails may be nubs by the time commencement rolls around.
With graduation barely more than two months away, the annual job hunt has begun, but the nation's shrinking economy has rendered the process more difficult - and stressful - for this year's class than for many of their predecessors.
Jobs are scarce, and the unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds is now over 9 percent, four points higher than the national average.
According to a study of 200 companies conducted by the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), a Pennsylvania-based survey firm, businesses across the nation expect to hire 20 percent less college graduates this year compared to last.
Camille Luckenbaugh, employment information manager for NACE, stressed that respondents were not averse to hiring fresh graduates as a policy, but are merely hiring fewer new employees this year than last.
"It's a rotten time right now," she said.
Signs of an economic slowdown began to appear as far back as the fall of 2000. Economists and political leaders were debating how severe the slowdown would be when the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 plunged the economy into a full-blown recession.
Chester Levine, manager of occupational outlook studies for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, said this downturn, even in light of the attacks, is just a product of a cyclical economy. "It's almost like the stock market. Why is the stock market good one year and bad another?" he asked.
The sour economic statistics have altered what employers are seeking in prospective employees. When the economy is strong, employers have a difficult time finding job seekers with experience, so they are willing to give recent graduates a chance. But experience is one of the main qualities companies look for during dips in the economy - and experience is the one thing graduates generally do not have.
Luckenbaugh explained that a lack of work of experience creates a more competitive job market during economic downtimes because "people aren't real anxious to leave their jobs."
Dan Overton, a computer engineering major, sees a different situation. "One of the ways companies scale back is by losing senior members and hiring recent grads for half the amount."
Most important for seniors, according to Judith Applebuam, associate director of UB's Career Planning and Placement, is starting the job hunt early. Some seniors "don't give themselves a lot of lead time to get ready for their job search, and they lose some opportunities," she said.
Despite the apparent doom and gloom, job openings do exist. Some occupations, - engineers, for example - remain in high demand regardless of the current economic forecast.
"If you have to pay an engineer $60,000 a year but he's going to save the company $150,000 a year, it's kind of worth it," Luckenbaugh said.
The war against terrorism has meant a growth in the federal government and related industries, such as defense contractors.
Sept. 11 changed what computer engineering major Joe Gauthier was looking to do post-graduation. He wasn't even considering applying to Lockheed Martin, one of the nation's largest defense contractors, before the attacks, but is now hoping to work for the company. "They're hiring," he said, "Not many companies are."
"Most people have a creeping concern they won't be able to do what they want to do," said Amanda Betts, a human-resources major. Betts remains confident she will find a job in her field because of her passion for her work.
Perhaps best for graduates, and the nation, signs have appeared pointing to a recovery. "[The job market] is less robust than it was two years ago, but more robust than it was six months ago," said Dan Ryan, director of Career Planning and Placement. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently testified before Congress he believes the end of the recession is near.
Whatever the ultimate economic fate of the nation, Overton remains confident. "I'm pretty sure I'll get something," he said.
