Playing by numbers

Mitt Romney's recent bump in the numbers has been replaced by a small bump in the road following Friday's September unemployment report.
Despite plotting to basically take down the full staff of PBS, the nation's rate of unemployment unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, down from 8.1 percent last month and marking the lowest it's been since President Obama took office in Jan. 2009.
After a weak debate performance, Obama needed something to get him back on track, and this is unquestionably the boost he was looking for. But both candidates need to take a step back before unleashing their new strategies.
A fall of 0.3 percent is not a lot, but it definitely has its importance. Truly for the first time in an election - running on questions such as, "Are we better off than we were four years ago?" and "Can Obama turn the economy around?" - is there a tangible number of improvement for the campaign. The answer to those questions just might be "yes" after all.
Not only that, but Romney's run has been able to hit hard on "chronic unemployment," using it as a consistent criticism in interviews and even noting in his closing statement at the debate that "we've had 43 straight months with unemployment above eight percent."
The president now has the economic upturn as a defense and can polish up his heels a bit after Romney stepped all over them, but he has to be careful not to crow too loudly. The numbers are not going to ruin Romney's chances, especially since he is beginning his post-nomination shift to the center and still has plenty to run on.
Total jobs for the month rose by 114,000, but according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, people who are classified as "part time for economic reasons" increased by approximately 581,000. Additionally, only about half of the 8.8 million jobs lost during the financial crisis have been restored, and the labor force participation rate has declined to 63.6 percent from 65.7 percent in Jan. 2009.
In Romney's humble opinion, "this is not what a real recovery looks like." The economy is moving in the right direction but not as fast as either candidate would like it to, giving neither a clear advantage.
Today's numbers have a different feel when you go back to 2009. The energetic, wide-eyed President-elect Barack Obama (sans salt-and-pepper hair) had much bigger plans. On Jan. 9, 2009, a report entitled "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan" was released and promised unemployment would never rise past 8 percent and would steadily decline to around 5.6 percent by the end of his four years if the stimulus passed. Even without the stimulus, the report predicted it would peak around 9 percent in the third quarter of 2010 before declining to around 6 percent.
Today, a rather lethargic Obama is probably shaking his head at those premature goals, but it is progress - the same progress his campaign has been crooning about all season. Romney just has to prove that when it comes to those numbers, he can out-progress the president.

Email: editorial@ubspectrum.com