Speaker series gets the flu

While the bird flu is not a new medical dilemma, it certainly has been raising recent concern among the public. Fears of an outbreak in the U.S. and around the world have left people wondering how serious this possibility is.

Award-winning journalist Laurie Garrett spoke at the Center for the Arts on Thursday night about these recent anxieties for the fifth installment of UB's Distinguished Speaker Series.

Garrett kicked off her lecture with a short history lesson on the virus, also known as the bird flu. Although the virus has recently received more attention the media, the headline scares may be misleading, as avian influenza is not a newly developing disease.

"In 1997, in Hong Kong, 24 people were infected with H5N1 (avian influenza), six of whom died. 1.5 million chickens were slaughtered, and people thought the epidemic ended," Garrett said.

Humans can contract the disease from infected sources such as animals and raw meat, but according to Garrett, the virus is not considered to be a "casual transmitter" between humans.

This could change, however, as a mutation in the disease could allow it to be easily transmitted from person to person.

According to Robert Webster, who Garrett described as the "granddaddy of flu epidemic research," the chances of that mutation occurring are about 50-50.

The lecture also included information about the 1918 flu epidemic that circled the earth three times, killing between 50 and 100 million people. The epidemic had a "kill rate" of about two percent of people infected.

Although the bird flu currently has a death rate of 55 percent, if it were to mutate and become more contagious in humans, it would also become less lethal, according to Garrett.

Her lecture also explained the idea of bird migration, and how it affects the transmission of the disease when flocks run into each other.

Currently, the bird flu has been reported in 45 countries, spreading from Southeast Asia all the way through Europe.

In a study done on New York City, 6,000 to 280,000 people would need to be hospitalized if the bird flu reached the city and the rate of serious illness and death was low. However, there are only about 28,000 hospital beds in New York City, according to Garrett.

"The truth is that containment is not possible. It's a threat for all of us as a world," she said. "Microbes don't carry passports, they don't request a visa and they don't give a damn about our immigration fight. They go where they can when they can."

For some students, Garrett's lecture delivered the brutal realization of how dangerous the disease really is.

"My main reaction is that we have such a problem with this disease, but no one is sharing info or sitting down to hammer out what to do," said Alex Painter, a history graduate student. "Compared to 1918 where there was a two percent death rate, this has a 55 percent death rate. It's amazing."

The speech, which was sponsored by the Graduate Student Association, aimed to bring information and sophistication to UB.

"GSA tends to bring intellectual types, writers, journalists, etc., so she fits the tradition," said Jun Xu, president of the Graduate Student Association. "There's so much talk about (bird flu) in the news so her lecture was also relevant."