Due to the erratic weather this season, some might consider swapping the old expression "when hell freezes over" for "when Lake Erie freezes over."
The current winter may be a mild one, but warm temperatures and infrequent snowfall also indicate a strong El Ni?+/-o year. The weather anomaly is causing lakes from the Northeast to the Midwestern United States to remain unfrozen, according to Kenton Stewart, Ph.D., professor emeritus of biological sciences.
El Ni?+/-o is a phenomenon characterized by unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator that creates atmospheric currents which move warmer air into the U.S. This warm air creates unpredictable weather patterns approximately every three to seven years.
"It was predicted that this El Ni?+/-o would be a mild one. The influences of a mild El Ni?+/-o are difficult to distinguish from the normal year-to-year variability in a given winter," Stewart said. "But this winter has definitely been warmer than usual."
The last intense El Ni?+/-o occurred in the winter of 1997-98.
Stewart records the thickness of the frozen top layers of various lakes throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin and Western New York, observing how the nation's water bodies are responding to this irregular weather.
"One of the consequences of this unexpectedly mild winter - so far - is that hundreds of Northeast and Midwestern lakes have yet to develop full ice covers," Stewart said.
Stewart also mentioned that lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin and other areas in the Midwest developed ice covers in early December. This was due to a short wave of cold weather produced by Arctic airs coming through Canada, but most lakes have since lost part or all of their ice as a result of the unusually warm temperatures late in December and early January.
Lake Erie's freezing patterns Stewart observed as still unfrozen, and chances of freezing are slim.
"It takes longer to respond to cold air because of its largeness," Stewart said. "Lake Erie needs to be observed from a satellite in order to be viewed in its entirety."
Because of its close proximity, Stewart observes the freezing pattern of on-campus Lake LaSalle.
"These lakes have frozen every year for the past two and a half decades that I have been studying them," Stewart said. "Because they are small, shallow lakes, they have a good chance of freezing."
Stewart observed small bits of ice around the north basin of Lake LaSalle west, which have currently thinned out. He observes the lake's status every five days, believing that the lake will freeze sometime later this winter.
In other parts of the country, the weather has taken a turn for the chilly as well as dangerous. Storms have hit several places with characteristically warm winters, such as California, Texas, Oklahoma and Florida. Many of these areas have been declared in states of emergency, as unprepared Americans face power outages and fatalities, often due to unsafe driving conditions. The death toll is currently reported at 65.
This trend is expected to continue, moving through the Carolinas into the Northeast.
"The system that brought snow to California will be bringing snow into the area over the weekend," said David Zaff, meteorologist for the national weather service. "But there will be nothing out of the ordinary for Buffalo."
Photo: Courtesy of Laron Fomby
