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The science behind the tsunami


For over a month now, newspapers and news channels have been dominated by tragic stories from South Asia, where the most devastating tsunami in recorded history affected countless lives.

Tracy Gregg, an associate professor in UB's geology department, watched in awe that day in December. Gregg has shared the world's horror at the scope of the tsunami tragedy, but as a geologist who's done research miles below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, she has also seen it as an opportunity to learn. On Sunday, Gregg spoke with The Spectrum about the science behind the tsunami.


Spectrum: So why do you feel it's important that the science behind the tsunami be covered along with all the political, social, and human-interest angles?

Tracy Gregg: Well the science is actually what drives the political and social issues. The big news stories are, 'why wasn't there a warning system in place?' 'Why didn't people know what's going on?' Well, that's the science. By trying to educate people about what a natural disaster is and what's the best way to protect themselves is the only way you're going to save lives in the future.


S: Do you think the science side has gotten the attention it should?


TG: Of course not, but I'm biased.


S: This particular earthquake, what caused it?

TG: All of Indonesia is formed because two plates on the earth's surface are coming together (with one pushing under the other), and it's where they come together that you get the strongest earthquakes.

S: And how does that cause a tsunami?

TG: Do you remember when you were a little kid in the wading pool? If you can imagine that wading pool as the ocean, what an earthquake does is like your big brother coming along and slamming a fist into the wading pool. That's exactly what an earthquake does in generating the tsunami. You're changing the shape of the ocean basin, instantly and violently. That just knocks a whole bunch of water out of the way and starts the process.


S: Isn't all this geological activity good for the earth?

TG: The earth doesn't care. The earth is doing its thing. The pressures are going to be released whether we're happy or not. Earthquakes will happen; volcanoes will shatter homes and destroy villages. ... In the long term, tsunamis are a part of the earth and a natural part of what happens.


S: What would you say is the most common misconception, if any, that people have about earthquakes and tsunamis?

TG: I don't know if this is as true in America, but the most common misconception of natural disasters is twofold: one is that they can be precisely predicted, and the second is that if there were a problem the government would tell us, and both of those just aren't true. They just happen so quickly it's hard for the government to mobilize.


S: What do you make of all the talk that suddenly popped up about warning systems?

TG: I study volcanoes and we have the same problems. It's frustrating because all it takes is a relatively inexpensive device put in the right place, and when I say relatively inexpensive, I'm comparing it to the billions of dollars in damage. ... But often (the decision) is left up to the local governments. Does this town or district want a warning system? So they look at this investment that could cost tens of thousands of dollars, and what the governments don't understand is that in a geological time scale, it isn't if (natural disasters) are going to happen, but that they are going to happen. ... But because it's something we cannot precisely predict, people don't want to put the time and effort into it.


S: When you first heard about the tsunami, did you have something of a two-part reaction to both the human tragedy and the science in action?

TG: I was visiting my family in Iowa and my first reaction when I first heard the (death toll) estimates I thought it's going to get closer to half a million before it's done. And my next reaction was oh my God, I have to save all these newspaper clippings and keep track of everything that's being said and done because we're going to learn so much from this. ... It's always that double edge. Oh my God it's horrible, and yay, we'll be able to learn more.


S: With a tragedy like this that's still pretty fresh, is it strange to start drawing up lesson plans to teach about it in class, or do you distance yourself so it's just the cut and dry science?

TG: I don't think you can remove yourself. I think that's part of what makes science accessible, it's to drive home the depth of tragedy and make people understand its humanity so it can be prevented from happening again.




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