American political experts in UB's political science department say current circumstances favor the re-election of President George W. Bush, but note that the actual race is still too close to call.
In such a close election, the professors agreed, voter turnout is key to both candidates. This year's election may very well be decided by the bloc of young voters that is traditionally known for its low turnout and apathy.
James Campbell, UB professor and author of several books analyzing U.S. elections, said in his forecasts there are three "fundamentals" to predicting who will win an election: public opinion, the economy and incumbency.
Campbell, who is on sabbatical completing his fourth book on American politics, said t public perception of the candidates prior to the election cycle, the state and potential of the election-year economy, and the incumbent status of a candidate can help predict the results of a presidential election.
"I think this is going to be a close election, though a lot of the 'fundamentals' favor President Bush," said Campbell in an e-mail.
Charles Finocchiaro, also a UB political science professor, agreed the circumstances favor the president in most elections.
"Traditional political science analysis says the advantage goes narrowly in favor of President Bush. Issues such as national security traditionally help the incumbent," he said. "But it is no slam dunk."
Finocchiaro said other issues like a shaky economy or even the national security issue, which normally helps a president, can result in a negative effect on the Bush campaign.
"The situation with the economy is tenuous. Some things indicate a turnaround, but other indicators say it is not turning around like it should. If Bush wins, he will be the first president in many years to win with a net job loss rate under his watch," he said.
Nathan Kelly, a UB professor teaching an election-year politics class, said President Bush has several advantages in the election, but so far they have not helped him maintain a lead in the polls.
Kelly said the new voter registration records being set for young voters is already having an impact on the way the campaigns are being measured.
"The registration stuff is really interesting. All over the place, all demographic groups are setting records, though it could make polls look bad, almost skewed," he said.
Finocchiaro added that campaigns are slow to focus on young voters because although they represent a large portion of potential voters, their turnout rate is usually low.
"Young voters are always a target, but is usually doesn't work," he said.
Finocchiaro said the country is divided almost exactly down the middle, and the independent voters both campaigns seem to be focusing on are not as important as they seem.
"In reality it comes down to a fight over turnout," he said. "Most people have already made up their minds, and it is the campaigns' jobs to get people excited and make sure to cast their vote. Whoever can get all their supporters out will probably win."
In an observation about the presidential race to this point, Kelly said there are two issues the Bush campaign no long holds as strong points but expected to have as advantages.
"At the Republican convention, the party emphasized terrorism and Bush's ability in the war on terror," he said. "But at this point they haven't been effective in connecting the war on terror to the war on Iraq. It allowed Kerry to go on the offensive in the week leading up to the first debate."
Kelly said the issue forced Bush to be on the defensive, having to explain himself on Iraq rather than assume he was right on the issue.
Following the first debate, the Bush campaign lost its small lead in the polls, but Finocchiaro said the debate bounce might not be so much a result of Kerry's apparent win as a normal interest spike as the election draws near.
"I am not so sure the debate result really caused the drawing up in the polls. People start paying attention now," he said. "Debates can have an impact, but there is not a lot of new things being said. The impact is really felt when someone screws up."
Even as he was skeptical of the debate effect, Finocchiaro said that any bounce felt from the debate could play an important role in such a tightly contested election.
"The debate's real effect seems to have been to excite those core voters who have already made up their minds," he said. "Before the debate, a poll of Kerry supporters showed only about 40 percent would describe themselves as excited about Kerry. After, that number jumped to something like 60 percent."
Kelly said Kerry's performance in the debate was effective in re-casting his image and stance on many key issues.
"Senator Kerry's stance on Iraq is much more nuanced than President Bush's, and that was a complicated message to explain," he said. "His attacks on 'outsourcing' the job to get Osama bin Laden simplified the debate over Iraq for him. The critiques are starting to look legitimate."
Yet despite the effect of the debates, Kelly, Finocchiaro and Campbell all said the slight advantages Bush has in being the incumbent would result in a Republican victory come November.
"There are a lot of issues they are dead even in the polls on," Kelly said.
"But the incumbent advantage will probably result in enough votes for Bush to get him a win."
