Being a fantasy manager is like being a weatherman: it's a guessing game.
There's no true science to it. No matter how much we try to convince ourselves we have the all-powerful, foolproof method to success, we must admit that most of our fantasy expertise is just luck.
A local high school that I pass daily was closed Tuesday due to weather. Why? Because some weather expert said Hurricane Sandy would reach Buffalo. Come Tuesday, the Queen City was a tangy 54 degrees with no rain all day.
What's the moral of the story? Even a fantasy "expert" on TV or online can't possibly say with any certainty what kind of performance a player will have. When you take all the conditions, matchups, injuries and tendencies into consideration, it's all still a guess at the end of the day.
Want to know the only way to completely accurately predict the weather? Look out your window; if there are no clouds, you can say it won't rain. And unless you're like Karen from Mean Girls and can sense the rain with your breasts, the only way to know if it will rain is to look outside and see rain coming down. That's about as far as you can go.
You want to know the only way to completely accurately predict a fantasy performance? Me too. If you find it, email me.
Now I'm not saying you should just blindly put people in your lineup. But when you realize you're 0-8 and have little chance left, you should get creative in your player selection.
The best way to do this is to base your pick-ups on the player's name. Even though guys like Ziggy Hood, Atari Bigby, King Dunlap and Captain Munnerlyn aren't offensive players, there are a couple good ones who are fantasy eligible.
"Dorin Dickerson" is fun to say, and get this: he plays three different positions for the Bills - running back, wide receiver and tight end. What a fantasy asset.
My new fantasy gem is the Patriots' new tight end, Michael Hoomanawanui. OK, so he's only scored one point this year, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
Another good strategy is to pick players with two first names. Form what I call a "name train." Search your free agent list with "Chase." Start with Saints back-up quarterback Chase Daniel. Proceed to use the last name of the player to connect the first name of the next player, and so on. So with Chase Daniel search "Dan" to get to Danario Alexander, then to Alexander Henery, ending with Henry Hynoski. Note: You are required to add all members of your name train to your team. Now your team is terrible, but at least you'll look good doing it.
Here are some spooky confidence ratings for week nine, because after all, I am an expert.
Mike Goodson (OAK/RB) - C.R. 6/13
Goodson is the backup to Darren McFadden. But what I like here is McFadden's injury-stricken past. He's never stayed healthy for an entire season, and he's beginning to look a bit banged up of late. If you can spare a roster spot at this point, Goodson could be big money later on down the stretch.
Brandon Lafell (CAR/WR) - C.R. 7/13
I know Cam Newton is garbage right now, but his opponent this week, the Redskins, are absolutely atrocious against the pass. In fact, they are the worst in the NFL. The Panthers are 1-6 and have essentially no shot at the playoffs, so look for them to shake things up. Trick plays and the deep balls are common play schemes for bad teams.
Christian Ponder (MIN/QB) - C.R. 3/13
I know a lot of people are scrambling for a QB this week with Tom Brady and Alex Smith on bye weeks, but beware. Ponder is going into Seattle this week. A lot of people accuse me of overrating Seattle's performance at home, but I'm a big proponent of avoiding shaky players who go into Seattle. Percy Harvin, Ponder's number one receiver, will be fine, but don't be surprised if Ponder struggles this week. Go out and look for another QB.
Bye Week Teams: Patriots, Rams, 49ers, Jets
Eliminator/ Survival Pick: Miami over Indy. You're probably running out of good options, so I'll be bold.
Email: sports@spectrum.com
Photo: Paul Hokanson/UB Athletics
