UB professor predicts overall defeat for House Democrats

According to the predictions of one UB professor, the majority vote in the House of Representatives is likely to transfer parties in this year's elections.

Dr. James E. Campbell, professor and chair of the political science department, predicts that the Democrats, who hold the current majority, could lose up to 51 seats in the House of Representatives.

Campbell's prognosis is based on the "Seats-in-trouble" model presented at the 2010 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. The model is based on the current number of seats held by an establishment.

Seats are scored as "solid" Democratic, "likely" Democratic, "leaning" democratic or "toss-up." The same designations are given to seats held by the Republican Party. According to the model, Democrats have many seats that are "toss ups" or worse, already lost. As it stands, the House is divided 59 percent Democrat and 41 percent Republican (257 to 178).

Travis Nemmer, vice president of UB College Republicans, believes that a loss of Democratic seats in the House of Representatives is warranted.

"President Barack Obama's coattails have extended far beyond their normal reach," Nemmer said.

The "seats-in-trouble" model takes into consideration other contextual variables including presidential approval, partisanship, ideology, the midterm decline from the prior presidential surge, partisanship of the districts being defended and the number of seats held going into an election.

"It's known that I am a republican, but that doesn't change the numbers," Campbell said.

According to Campbell, models similar to the one used in his prognosis have predicted that Democrats will lose as little as 43 seats.

"Only time will tell," Campbell said. "It's safe to say the forecast will be wrong to some degree due to some things that can't be anticipated. The formula predicts a loss of 51 seats plus or minus five and a half seats."

Leland Murphy, president of the UB College Democrats, doesn't predict the election will be a significant defeat for the democrats.

"I hadn't even heard of this prediction," Murphy said. "The club will be working hard to make sure [the predictions aren't realized]."

If Campbell's prediction turns out to be accurate, however, it does not necessarily mean the Republican Party will pick up the seats lost by the Democrats.

According to the results of primary elections on Tuesday, a number of Tea Party-backed candidates are gaining momentum. According to BBC News, the gr=assroots Tea Party Movement, established last year, has become a major challenge to the Republican Party.

Stacy Pan, a sophomore nursing major, feels that a Republican majority in the House of Representatives would intensify the nation's struggling economy.

"We don't need Republicans in office," Pan said. "We are already in an economic crisis and we can't afford to have any more money taken from education. If Republicans get these seats, it would be really unfortunate for the country as a whole.