I don't know whether John Kerry plays poker. I always took him for a bridge man, based on his pedigree.
But after his performance in last Thursday's debate, it's clear he knows one of the cardinal rules of poker that's also a cardinal rule of politics: Know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.
Kerry learned a valuable lesson from Gore's fatal attempt to go "all in" on every question. Instead, Kerry picked his battles early in the debate, using the single-issue format to wear down Bush's main points.
Early in the debate, Kerry employed a subtle two-part attack that drove a stake through the heart of Bush's strategy.
Kerry consistently broadened the focus of the debate. Bush began by saying the White House was "strong and resolute" on Iraq. Rather than going for the jugular, as Gore might have done, Kerry gently reminded America of his more intelligent approach. "I will hunt down and kill the terrorists wherever they are," Kerry said. "But we also have to be smart." Later on Iraq, he said, "(Saddam) was a threat. That's not the issue. The issue is what you do about it."
With this approach Kerry showed the diplomacy that he said he would have used in Iraq. He ruined Bush's "strong and resolute" rhetoric for the rest of the debate.
Kerry also quickly refuted Bush's tired "flip-flopper" claim. "I've had one consistent position," Kerry said. "Saddam Hussein was a threat. There was a right way to disarm him and a wrong way. And the president chose the wrong way."
As a result, Kerry denied Bush his two main weapons halfway through. The president found himself cornered like a Texan rat snake. At this point Kerry stepped back, acted presidential, and let Bush dig his own grave.
And dig and dig he did.
Bush did the worst thing he could have done: he began whining. Over and over again he told us that being president was "hard work." "I wake up every day thinking about how best to protect America," he said. Later: "There's a lot of good people working hard to (protect us)," he said. Later: "We tried diplomacy. We tried our best."
Waking up and having eggs with Donald Rumsfeld is not my ideal morning. But if Bush wants to know about hard work he should stop whining and listen to an American who struggles to keep his family farm or an American who lost her job and had to take a new one without health benefits.
The other argument Bush resorted to was "I know these people." About world leaders, he said, "I know how these people think. I deal with them all the time."
The implication, of course, was that "I know these people...and you don't." He was speaking to Americans who don't think for themselves. But skepticism of authority is part of the American consciousness, and this argument fell flat.
While Bush was self-destructing, Kerry kept cool. He scored a direct hit with Richard Clarke's famous quote, "Invading Iraq in response to 9/11 would be like Franklin Roosevelt invading Mexico in response to Pearl Harbor."
Meanwhile things got so bad for Bush that he began to make bizarre mistakes. As he spoke of Missy Johnson of North Carolina, who lost her husband in Iraq, he said, "You know, it's hard work to love her as best I can, knowing full well the decision I made caused her loved one to be in harm's way."
That Bush was "loving" her surely would have come to the surprise of Mrs. Johnson's husband.
And Bush jumped in awkwardly after Kerry said the White House didn't do enough to build a coalition. "Well actually, he forgot Poland," Bush said.
In fact Poland wasn't on the ground when the U.S. invaded Iraq. And earlier this week Poland's defense minister said the nation is strongly considering pulling its troops from Iraq by the end of the year.
In the end, Kerry drove home the point that the President is out of touch with reality. And he broke the stalemate that has defined recent presidential debates. In a post-debate poll by the L.A. Times, Kerry beat Bush by 39 points on the issue of who won.
Both candidates have pushed their chips to the center of the table. Kerry should stick to his strategy. If Bush can't do better in Friday's debate, he'll get trumped in November.
