The NFL is gradually evening out. With the rise of young quarterbacks, there are more and more teams that have become competent picks as 'underdogs.' Which leads us into this week's theme: pick the underdogs!
There are fewer and fewer teams that are unanimous picks to get rolled over on a week-to-week basis. Think about it: What teams in the NFL this season are practically guaranteed picks to lose? I count two: the Jaguars and Raiders. Other bottom-tier teams like the Jets and Browns have strong enough defenses to help keep games respectable.
If you don't agree that the parity in the NFL is plummeting, here are the stats to back it up:
2011: Regular season favorites went 128-123-5 against the spread. That's a winning percentage of 51.
2012: Regular season favorites went 120-132-4 against the spread, a dip to a 47.6 winning percentage.
2013 (through two weeks): Regular season favorites are 14-17-1, a further dip to a 45.16 winning percentage.
The problem remains, which underdogs are the best to pick?
Six-point teaser bets: If you're too nervous to go straight up against the spread, adding six points to your line is a good assurance. Of course, the benefits from your wager decrease, but you can make enough in return by adding two or three games to the same ticket.
Atlanta Falcons (+2) at Miami Dolphins: With the tease, the line jumps to +8 for the Falcons. They might have a limited Roddy White and be without Steven Jackson, but do you really think Ryan Tannehill's Dolphins can outscore Matt Ryan by more than a touchdown? Pick: Falcons +8
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-16): The Broncos have outscored the Ravens and Giants by an average of 20 points. With the six-point tease, they only need to give the Raiders 10 points. Oh yeah, this is a Monday night football game at home for Peyton Manning. Pick: Broncos -10
San Diego Chargers (+3) at Tennessee Titans: The Titans have looked good thus far, with an unforeseen defense that shut down the Steelers for an entire game and the undefeated Texans for 55 minutes. Regardless, I'm not picking Jake Locker's sluggish offense to outscore a re-invented Chargers offense - which is averaging 30.5 points this season - by two possessions. Pick: Chargers +9
Over/under pick of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (o/u 44): The Patriots are still a couple weeks away from getting back to their traditional unbreakable offense. Without his top receiving options healthy, last week's game against the Jets may have been the worst of Tom Brady's career. On top of that, the Buccaneers' defense has looked impenetrable - especially after shutting down the Saints last week. Even if the Pats go off for three or four touchdowns, that puts the total at 28 points. The Bucs would still need to gather two or three touchdown drives of their own to reach 44 - not happening under Josh Freeman's anemic offense. Pick: Under.
Line of the week: New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-0): Bettors were given a sign from above as Vegas made this is a 'pick-em' game. Though Eli Manning has struggled with turning the ball over, Carolina's defensive backs were decimated with injuries against the Bills last week. The Giants - who many still view as a potential playoff team - aren't going to start the season off 0-3, and Cam Newton seems to have regressed in his third year. The Panthers have scored only three offensive touchdowns this year, and they won't be able to keep up with the Giants' offensive weapons. Pick: Giants.
Email: jon.gagnon@ubspectrum.com
