Re-inflating Buffalo's bubble

Buffalo is going to bounce back in spite of itself.

With Byron Brown in as Buffalo mayor, there is new hope, but Buffalo's rejuvenation will have little to do with him. It's the same with Erie County Executive Joel Giambra. He is on his way out, but no matter what idiot wins office, as long as that person doesn't pull another Giambra and bankrupt the county, the city and region are going to come back.

It's the economy, stupid.

And don't be fooled - Buffalo's economy is in shambles, but so are those of other cities. New York, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C. all have growing populations, but also growing housing bubbles, in which property value is growing exponentially. Those bubbles are eventually going to burst, and the reason will be because no one will be able to afford to live in them anymore.

One common thread among nearly all my graduated friends is that they were moving to New York, heading to Florida, goin' to Cali. Well, for a kid just out of college with little experience, few connections and even less money, those places aren't all they're cracked up to be.

People who grew up in places like Brooklyn, Miami and Seattle can no longer afford to live in their native towns, so how could a snot-nosed kid from upstate, with no existing big-city connections make it?

I don't mean to be pessimistic. Many will make it; some will succeed wildly beyond their wildest dreams. For the average-to-above-average however, it will take a Herculean effort to establish any reasonable savings and money to build a family in these overheated real estate markets.

With rent costs surpassing $1,200 for a one-room place an hour outside of Manhattan, not including utilities, furniture, food (damn expensive in the big city), and transportation (MTA, car, whatever), there can be no reasonable expectation for anyone to ever come out ahead on one's own, let alone for a family.

In the city of Buffalo, you could buy a three or four bedroom, 2 1/2 bath house for under $50,000. Take a mortgage and that's under $800 a month. Tack on utilities, you probably wouldn't crack $1,500. And remember, that's for at least four bedrooms.

Of course, it's in Buffalo, well away from all the opportunities that a big-time city like New York provides. But here's the thing: no new company of any substantial size is starting up in New York City, least of all hiring new people. They can't afford to pay their own workers in those hotbeds (unless they have those pork-barrel deals in the Washington district). The mad dash of companies out of these areas might not have quite heated up yet, but you'll see - cities like Buffalo will soon be the new India or China for service jobs, light manufacturing and high technology businesses.

These high-risk companies can't afford to pay their workers Cost of Living Adjustment wages beyond six figures to start, and in Buffalo they wouldn't have to.

Taxes in New York are high, but a business could make a killing when your young workers can raise a family comfortably starting at $40,000, or even less for your singles who have no kids.

Everyone's looking for the sweeter deal, but in the current economic environment, who can really afford to pay for ridiculous insurance rates - for everything from health and auto to Armageddon - that are required in other cities that Buffalonians barely know. In the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, I'd much rather deal with the occasional blizzard.

Where are you going to pay more in the long-term?

In reality, Buffalo will continue to shrink for the foreseeable future, but there's hope. Some of those friends that left are already back, and with GEICO and Boeing either building or planning on coming to the area, there's reason to believe Buffalo can become a Great Lakes metropolis once more.