According to the most recent Buffalo News polls, the race for Buffalo's mayor is already decided. But following two debates, the picture is no longer completely clear.
Democrat Byron Brown led the most recent poll 60 percent to Republican Kevin Helfer's 19 percent, with Green Party candidate Judy Einach getting 5 percent, and independent Charlie Flynn polling at one percent. At the time of the Zogby poll, from Oct. 19-20, Byron Brown was the only candidate with heavy television advertising and no public debate had occurred.
Recent endorsements also may be leading to a swing in the race, with the News and the high-profile Buffalo-Niagara Partnership both endorsing Helfer.
While the two most visible candidates have been taking much of the spotlight, third party candidates have been flying under the poll and media radars. But with their roles in the public debates, they may yet have an impact on the election.
A new Buffalo News poll is now being conducted to calculate the effect of the debates, the last one being held last Thursday, and at least one candidate believes she made a serious impact on voters' opinions.
"The debate really changed things for me," said Einach, a candidate struggling for attention behind wealthier campaigns. "It really changed perceptions of a woman candidate from the Green Party. I think people looked at that and thought I would be kind of crazy, but they looked at the debate and saw I'm not kooky at all."
Einach said that as a third party candidate, her campaign already started out in a hole compared to the established parties backing Brown and Helfer.
"Anybody who approaches the current system has an enormous challenge just getting on the ballot," she said. "There is no guidebook that tells you how to get on the ballot in New York, and unless you have people who are really schooled in the loopholes and tricks, you have to learn it yourself."
Those "tricks" include ensuring valid signatures on a petition and filing correct paperwork, and Einach said third party candidates face extra scrutiny and delays that larger parties are not subject to.
"We ended up having to make mistakes on the first petition we had for the Democratic primary," she said. "For the next one, the independent nomination, I knew all the rules and all the tricks. I probably did one of the strongest petitions the New York Board of Elections had ever seen."
But a strong petition still did not clear the path to the ballot for Einach. Helfer's campaign waged a court battle calling into question the validity of Einach's petition, but after a long delay, the case was thrown out and Einach made it onto the ballot.
"(Helfer) knew full well my petition was valid from the start. He used a classic delay tactic that worked well because of confusion in the Board of Elections because of Erie County's budget cuts," she said. "I had to hammer Helfer in the media, calling him a bully, which dragged him down until he had to back off."
Einach said third party candidates are also victim to media outlets that refuse to cover third party candidates.
"The Buffalo News doesn't interview us, not even talking to third party candidates," she said.
Einach said she represents the only truly different candidate for reform in Buffalo, citing issues that she differs completely from the other three candidates.
"I'm going into this as the only no-casino candidate out there," she said.
Einach also is the only candidate pushing for a one-page business application process, an issue she said would help attract young entrepreneurs to the city.
"Any enterprise management should be simplified. I'm in a fight in New York State so businesses can start a business and stay here," she said.
The biggest difference for Einach from the other candidates is the most visible: Einach is a woman. She said it is a difference that makes her a wildcard in the race.
There hasn't been a woman candidate in a Buffalo mayoral race since the 1960s," she said. "No one knows what the woman factor will be."
Photo: Courtesy of Matthew Messina, from the RMBERS' Instagram page
