Just last week, it was fact. Congress had passed it as law, and the State Department made it official: starting in 2008, for the first time, everyone entering the United States from Canada would need a passport.
Opponents of the law cried foul, saying such a change to the world's longest undefended border would cripple travel, tourism and the economy, especially in areas like Western New York. And since it was already a law, there seemed to be little anyone could do about it.
That, however, was last week.
Now, the story of how this bill becomes a law has taken a strange twist that few expected. President George W. Bush, the man who signed the passport restrictions into existence in 2004, said on Thursday he questions the law and has ordered a review of the border security changes.
In a CNN report, Bush said he was surprised by the announcements from the Homeland Security and State departments.
"It's going to disrupt the honest flow of traffic," he said. "I think there's some flexibility in the law, and that's what we're checking out right now."
While Bush and the federal government revisit the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act, which called for the passports, the debate in Western New York continues to heat up as the law's opponents now have more fuel for their fire.
Ron Rienas, general manager of the Peace Bridge Authority, said there is no doubt in his mind what requiring passports would do to the Buffalo-Niagara region.
"It's going to have a tremendous negative impact to the bi-national region," he said. "The relationship between Canada and the (United States) for the last 200 years has been one of free movement of people and goods across the border."
According to government officials, the real hurt will come if nothing is changed and a high-level security threat crosses the border somewhere like the Peace Bridge.
Michael Neifach, director of immigration policy for border transportation security in the Department of Homeland Security, said the country must look at border safety differently after Sept. 11.
"The fact is that people do go through the land borders (illegally), a lot of them do," Neifach said. "But that's the legal route and we have to do everything we can to tighten that up."
Rienas said he understands the border needs to be tightened up, but the casual traveler -- whether it's a Canadian going to a Buffalo Bills game or someone from Pittsburgh going to Niagara Falls - will be far less inclined to come to the Buffalo-Niagara area if they need to wait six weeks for a passport that costs $97.
"You need a Canadian market to really survive, and if you don't have it, it starts to have all sorts of impacts," he said. "We think a lot of people simply won't bother to get a passport."
"The decision making process is going to be such that people are going to say it's not worth the aggravation," Rienas added.
David Lacki, director of tourism for the Buffalo Niagara Convention and Visitors Bureau, said requiring passports is "going to absolutely devastate tourism in the short term and probably the long term."
"It's going to hurt our business, no question, especially if you look at the draw of Canadian shoppers who come down here to Buffalo," Lacki said.
Lacki said he wants to see no part of the law go through, but this change in border mentality is likely the new reality in America.
Starting next year, the law calls for passport requirements from the Caribbean and Central and South America. By 2008, all travel from Canada and Mexico would also be phased in.
"I think all of us deep down knew that sooner or later, after 9/11 and with all the other international issues going on, it was just a matter of time," Lacki said.
For most of the country, only 20 percent of which has passports, "this is going to come as a jolt," Lacki said, but "probably just like Europe and the other continents, everyone is going to need a passport."
"It's going to take a number of years of hurt before we get to that and everyone is accepting it," he added.
Lacki said he's already gotten calls from concerned tourists, and the effects will be further reaching than many have predicted.
Plus, if the reason behind the passports is security, "someone who wants to sneak into the country is going to sneak in whether they want to or not, and if they need to get an illegal passport, they'll get one," Lacki said. "All you're really doing is hurting people, the innocent ones who have nothing to do with this, and small business and future development."
According to Neifach, in the end the passport law will do more help than hurt.
"Having a passport or other appropriate documentation is a prerequisite for safe and secure travel for everybody," he said.
Neifach said the United States needs to look at the models in Europe, and although passports have been laid down in law, his department is willing to consider other documents that could satisfy requirements.
"We're not closed to what may be out there," he said.
Neifach acknowledged the economic concerns of opponents and said those need to be seriously considered. Right now, much of the process is wait and see, he said.
Meanwhile, Lacki said his bureau, along with others, are urging local and state politicians to get involved in the discussion.
As an alternative to passports, Lacki suggested the quick-pass border program, NEXUS, be expanded and better marketed. Or maybe the answer lies in national identity cards.
"I don't know what the answer is," Lacki said. "This is all new stuff for our generation. We've never had to deal with this."
Rep. Brian Higgins, D-Buffalo, said he doesn't know if the passports would have a devastating economics effect, but "those are valid concerns and they need to be addressed."
"What you need is for those (State and Homeland Security) departments along with immigration, along with any other ancillary agencies involved ... to develop a plan specific to the international crossing at the Peace Bridge," Higgins said.
Higgins said he's also concerned about getting the proper resources from the federal government for tighter security - not just in human resources but also in technology and information "to ensure that these inspections of people going into and out of Canada is done efficiently."
In Rienas' opinion, it's not simply a matter of adjusting the law to the region. Between 2000 and 2004 there has been a 17 percent decline in the number of vehicles crossing between Canada and Buffalo. For Niagara Falls, he said, there has been a 25 percent decline of 2.7 million vehicles.
And if that is just from Sept. 11, Rienas asks, what will passport requirements do?
"It was never perceived as a border," he said. "It was perceived as crossing the river - to visit your family, your friends."
For Nigel Marriner, crossing the border is often about family. Marriner, an advisor and director in the UB Honors Program, grew up north of Toronto and visits his family there frequently.
If he needs a passport, Marriner said he would of course get one, and he would probably also get a NEXUS pass. Whether it's to visit family or hit the casino, people will do what they have to do to get places, he said.
"People will just do as they're expected to do and I don't think it will be as much of a concern as people make it to be," Marriner said. "We have to respect the fact that it's a different country."
At one point, Marriner noted, many people were upset they would need a driver's license to cross the border.
"People aren't a big fan of change no matter what it is," he said. "Especially if it's a government body forcing that change."



