Troop Hike Shows Iraq Not Ready For Elections

This week the news came down from Washington that U.S. troop levels in Iraq will be increased by 1,500 and that tours for 10,000 troops will be extended, bringing the total troop level up to 150,000. The increase comes as Iraq is bracing itself against the widespread insurgency to prepare for elections.

Bush is insistent that elections, set for Jan. 30, will go forward as planned. For months Bush and high-ranking military officials have maintained that troop levels were sufficient. This reversal does not bode well for the impending election or for the United States' role in Iraq.

The situation on the ground of the embattled nation is difficult to gauge. Independent journalists are unable to venture beyond the secure "green zone" to investigate reports because of the high risk of violence, and military reports cannot be trusted because of bias. As for the election, Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi supports the current date but a variety of secular, religious and regional groups, 17 in total, are asking that it be postponed.

Given the conflicting information, it is perhaps best to evaluate Iraq's readiness for a legitimate election by the level of violence pervading everyday life. Despite the recent battle in Fallujah, which was supposed to stem the tide of the insurgency, the number of attacks against troops is averaging around 100 per day. And these attacks are not just affecting troops but also innocent civilians, who are being wounded and killed by the mortar attacks and car bombs that have become commonplace in many cities. The threat of violence paralyzes citizens and does not provide a good environment for representative elections.

Newly trained Iraqi security forces, identified as Iraq's only hope for stability and our plan to pull U.S. troops out, are also faced with devastating insurgent attacks. Putting an Iraqi face on security was supposed to alleviate attacks launched on American troops who are seen as occupiers. In reality insurgents have merely extended their attacks to include those who work with U.S. forces. Incidents like the systematic assassination of 44 Iraqi soldiers on Oct. 24 are hazards of the job that have hollowed out the effectiveness of these forces. It is clear that the chances of both an effective Iraqi police and military transfer of power are slim.

The inability of either U.S. or Iraqi forces to stem the insurgent violence is indicative of the serious nature of the insurgency in general. Comparisons to the disastrous Vietnam War that have been made since the beginning of this conflict are now becoming more and more apt. The troops are fighting a force that conventional military tactics may be unable to defeat and it is unlikely that adding more troops will help their chances. This was the lesson we were supposed to have learned from Vietnam. Unfortunately it looks like we will have to learn it again, the hard way.