With the 2012-13 NBA season on the horizon, it is only right to provide an in-depth analysis of what to look forward to this season. This offseason has been action packed with trades, free agency moves and a stellar draft class.
Old rivalries will be renewed and new ones will be born. The Celtics and Lakers both have legitimate chances of meeting in the NBA Finals for the 13th time. And if not? We may have to settle for another rematch between Kevin Durant's Thunder and LeBron James' Heat. The NFL is in full session right now, but don't worry, basketball fans: the NBA season has finally arrived.
Surprise Team:
Gagnon - Golden State Warriors: Second-year head coach Mark Jackson failed to produce on his promise when he first got to Golden State last year. He said the Warriors would make the playoffs. However, his transformation of the young, high-octane, run-and-gun offense into a stout, fundamental team defense will take more than one season. This year, they look promising to make a run at one of the lower seeds in the Western Conference playoffs. The Warriors have two solid big men (Andrew Bogut and David Lee), one of the best young shooters in the NBA (Klay Thompson) and a star youngster who finally appears healthy (Stephen Curry). On paper, the Warriors have without a doubt a top-eight team in the West; they just need to play up to their potential.
Smith - Detroit Pistons: The Pistons are back! Just a few years removed from quitting on former coach John Kuester, this year's version of the boys from Motown should be ready to compete for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Yes, I said it: the eighth seed. Talented big man Greg Monroe is ready to take the leap into becoming one of the best big men in the East - along with first-round pick Andre Drummond impressing in the preseason, the Pistons will have a young frontcourt that will dominate for years to come. Improvements from second-year guard Brandon Knight, as well as continued production from Jonas Jerebko and Austin Daye, and scoring from veteran Corey Maggette, will be critical for Detroit. The Palace will be a tough place to win a game in a division that will have a weaker Bulls team, a not-ready-to-win Cavs team and a Bucks team that will have trouble scoring. The East is weak enough that this group should win a ton of games.
Konze - Sacramento Kings: The Kings are a very young team that demonstrated small spurts of talent last season. The emergence of the Kings' guards helped proved this true. Rookie Isaiah Thomas shot an impressive 37.9 percent from three-point range and 45 percent from the field. Marcus Thornton, Tyreke Evans and Aaron Brooks complement the surge of the young Thomas in the backcourt. DeMarcus Cousins has been a force inside, averaging 18.1 points and 11 rebounds per game last season in his sophomore campaign. If Thornton, Evans, Thomas and Cousins can fire on all cylinders, look for the Kings to compete for a lower seed playoff spot in the Western Conference and eliminate their "cellar dweller" identity.
Rookie of the Year:
Gagnon - Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: Lillard had the best offseason of any rookie in the NBA and has already grasped control of the starting point guard position in Portland. In the summer league, Lillard averaged 26.5 points and was a First-Team All Rookie selection. He followed that up by leading all rookies in scoring (16.2 ppg) in preseason play. Lillard can take it to the hole, hit the three-ball and he has a lot of high-quality scoring options around to help him succeed. With the pieces surrounding him, an above-average season from this floor general could bring the Trail Blazers back into the playoff hunt, where they belong.
Smith - Anthony Davis, New Orleans Hornets: The first overall pick from last year, "The Brow," should have no trouble acclimating to the NBA game. His size may be a concern, as he will have to bulk up to battle down low every night against the NBA's elite bigs, but the experience he gained in the London Olympic Games - battling against supreme NBA talent - will help him this season. His defensive instincts alone will help as he learns the ins and outs of being a big-time defender in the NBA. This future Defensive Player of the Year will help make the Hornets into a tough team night in and night out.
Konze - Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors: His college career never really lived up to the hype. There is a valuable explanation for this: Barnes' game is fit for the style of play in the NBA. He is a great perimeter shooter, and with the floor more spread out than in college, he should be able to create his own shots. Barnes had a solid offseason, averaging 16.8 points per game and shooting 39.5 percent from the field in the summer league. Look for Barnes to make his case as Rookie of the Year. How could you not? He has a great supporting cast.
Breakout Player:
Gagnon - Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers: Last year's Rookie of the Year is on his way to superstardom. He averaged 18.5 points and 5.4 assists per game (a number that would probably double if Cleveland had one other player who could score) in his rookie season. Cleveland's roster hasn't improved since last year, minus the addition of Dion Waiters, and I can't see them making a run at the eight seed in a deep Eastern Conference. Everyone in the basketball world is on board with this young stud, but when will he progress into the player he's expected to be? Right now. After this year, people will include Irving with the likes of the best point guards in the NBA.
Smith - Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors: After a tremendous summer league in which the Warriors told him not to come back after only two games because he was that good, expect the hot-shooting guard to tear up the NBA in 2012 and fill in nicely for star guard Monta Ellis who was traded near the end of last season. Thompson should benefit from having shooters all around him, as opponents will have to deal with David Lee on the low block and Stephen Curry, Richard Jefferson and first-round pick Harrison Barnes on the wings. His size at 6-foot-7 also gives him the ability to punish opposing smaller shooting guards. With his outside touch and coaching by second-year coach Mark Jackson, Thompson will help lead the Warriors to the playoffs and end up as a top-five shooting guard in the NBA by season's end.
Konze - Paul George, Indiana Pacers: The 6-foot-8 swingman is the topic of discussion within the Pacers' organization. Coaches are anticipating George to take over as one of the team's leading scorers along with All-Star Danny Granger. I see this happening just before the end of the season. During his rookie year, George shot only 29.7 percent from 3-point range. Last season, George found his smooth stroke and knocked down 38.5 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. His success will rely on whether or not Danny Granger will share the ball.
MVP:
Gagnon - LeBron James, Miami Heat: I hate to make the obvious pick, but how can you go against him? It's basically a lock that the Heat will win at least 65 games this season and LeBron will average 28-7-7. He's the ultimate package and the best player in the world. The Lakers have too many new pieces to be able to predict which player will help them regain Western dominance, and I just don't think Durant helps in enough ways beyond scoring for him to take the MVP crown away from LeBron. If Rondo can play as well as he did in the playoffs last season, he should challenge James and become the runner up. He's as much the heart and soul of that Celtics team as James is to the Heat.
Smith - Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics: The stars should align this year for the electrifying Celtics point guard. People forget he put up one of the most incredible games in NBA playoff history, scoring 44 points, grabbing eight rebounds and dishing 10 assists - single-handedly bringing a Celtics team to the brink of beating the eventual NBA champs. Guard Ray Allen left for the Heat and openly called Rondo out, and Rondo was snubbed from the Olympic team. He has more than enough motivation to prove the doubters wrong. People will be tired of voting for LeBron every year, so this is the year for Rondo to shine. With his work ethic this offseason and a willingness to finally become a scoring option, triple-doubles should be the norm for Rondo.
Konze - Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder: As he embarks on his sixth season, Durant has proved to fans why he belongs on the list of elite players in the world. Last season, Durant averaged 28 points per game, extending his streak as the NBA's scoring titleholder to two years. Durant misses, but rarely - he finished last season with the second-most field goal attempts in the NBA but managed to shoot 49.6 percent. After Oklahoma City fell to Miami in the NBA Finals last season, I feel Durant still has a lot left in the tank. Expect him to continue his success and step up amid the absence of James Harden. Durant will challenge LeBron James this season for the NBA MVP.
Finals Matchup:
Gagnon - Lakers over Heat: What a bold prediction, huh? I'm pretty sure everyone on the planet has a Lakers/Thunder vs. Heat NBA Finals, except for these guys below me. So let me explain why the Lakers will come out on top. Their struggles in recent years have been due to three things: lack of a bench, perimeter shooting and Andrew Bynum's immaturity and inability to develop any sort of cohesion with the offense unless he was the focal point of it. Now they fixed those problems. Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison are all reliable shot makers, and they will give the Lakers the lift they need when that first unit comes off the floor. Not to mention Steve Nash is arguably the best shooter in the NBA. But Dwight Howard is the ultimate answer to their potential title run. When Westbrook, Durant, James and Wade all attempt to attack the paint, the best defender in the league will now be greeting them. It might take the Lakers some time to get their chemistry together, just like it took Miami in its first season, but if they figure it out, they'll have it all: defense, low-post presence, perimeter shooting, a floor general and the best closer in the NBA: Kobe Bryant.
Smith - Heat over Spurs: This should be a rematch of the NBA Finals from last year. However, the then-scorching Spurs picked the worst time to go cold from beyond the arc against the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. Think about it: the Spurs suffered from one of the more fluky shooting games in recent history by two big men who aren't notorious for their offensive production, as Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins missed only two of 20 shots combined in a crucial game four of that epic series. With a weaker Thunder lineup, a Laker team that isn't deep enough for postseason play and no one else talented enough to corral the Spurs, they should be able to survive the Western Conference. Miami only has to beat a Celtics squad that, despite its improvements, won't have enough to beat this team. In the end, LeBron James and his band of outside shooters will be too much for the Spurs, as the Heat will win back-to-back NBA titles.
Konze - Lakers over Celtics: This rivalry has been going on for 48 years. Many thought the departure of Ray Allen to the Heat and an aging Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett would make it difficult for point guard Rajon Rondo to carry the load. However, this is not the case. The Celtics had a very busy offseason, acquiring Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, Leandro Barbosa and Jared Sullinger. Jeff Green is returning after missing all of last season because of heart surgery. Over the course of the year, we will all fall witness to a team that will compete against the Heat and slip past them to face off against the Lakers in the NBA Finals.
The Los Angeles Lakers made some huge offseason acquisitions. After they obtained Dwight Howard from the Orlando Magic via trade and Steve Nash from Phoenix, I see the Lakers developing an unstoppable chemistry. The Lakers have also upgraded their bench by acquiring Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison. These two players are solid options to rest the Lakers' key players. Steve Nash is arguably one of the best point guards of all time and Dwight Howard averaged 14.5 rebounds per game last season. The presence of Howard down low with long-range shooters like Kobe Bryant and Nash will be scary for Western Conference foes - and eventually too scary for the Celtics in the NBA Finals.
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