Iraq's slide towards civil war continues on.
Regardless of President Bush's declaration hailing Saturday's vote as a victory for opponents of terrorism, the insurgency and violence plaguing Iraq will continue unabated as long as U.S. forces occupy the country. Iraq's forced march towards democracy doesn't look promising and the constitutional referendum vote highlights why.
The Sunni Muslims that dominated Iraq's rule under Saddam Hussein's regime turned out in larger numbers than expected Saturday to vote against the referendum. If two thirds of voters in any three provinces reject the constitution, it will fail, though it is largely expected to pass. Washington's hope is that by voting "no," dissatisfied Sunni's will view the process as legitimate, which in turn will legitimize the results in their own eyes. The problem with this reasoning is the differences Sunnis have with the Shiite-Kurdish alliance will endure, even becoming more pronounced. As Sunnis see the political process moving forward without their concerns being addressed, they will continue supporting the insurgency in order to disrupt further progress. In turn, the United States will not be able to pull troops out anytime soon, resulting in further inflamed Iraqis and Muslims worldwide.
Many Sunnis have already declared the insurgency and the vote to be separate issues. Sunnis largely boycotted January's election, which resulted in them not receiving proper representation in Iraq's Parliament. That is why they turned out in mass this time: Sunnis want a say in Iraq's future, specifically to maintain the control they enjoyed under Saddam Hussain's rule. However, once the results are determined to be against their wishes, they will continue to express their dissatisfaction through continual support of the insurgency. As Sunni's see political power controlled by Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south, civil war will become their last option for control.
Overall turnout for Saturday's election is estimated around 61 percent of those eligible to vote, meaning approximately 9 million Iraqis cast ballots in a country of 27 million, which is greater than January's election that found 58 percent voting. But January's election was widely boycotted by Sunnis, which means that turnout actually declined amongst Shiites and Kurds this time around. It seems that Iraq is already afflicted with voter apathy and complacency. It's not difficult to understand why-civilians being blown up and murdered have taken their toll and underground militias have enough power on the streets to continually invoke fear. Declining participation in elections does not instill confidence in the legitimacy of the process, or invoke confidence in a democratic Iraq.
Though the relatively low number of attacks on polling stations is promising, and the referendum itself points to progress, Iraq's descent into anarchy marches on. Bringing democracy by gunpoint to Iraq will prove to be the greatest failure in U.S. foreign policy history. Saturday's vote only delays this certainty.
