Is Buffalo at risk of a bioterrorist attack? Not likely, according to Dr. Richard Lee, UB professor of medicine, pediatrics and obstetrics.
Lee hosted the first lecture in the university's "Perspectives on September 11th and Its Aftermath" series, entitled "Bioterrorism: What is Our Risk?" Wednesday afternoon in the Student Union Theater. His discussion focused on the strategies behind terrorism, as well as the possibilities, likelihood and areas most vulnerable for attack. The risk? "Not huge, but not zero," Lee said.
Despite what the world has recently been forced to recognize as possible, Lee reminded the audience that acts of terrorism of a large magnitude are "not an easy thing to do," particularly in the area of bioterrorism, the use of diseases as weapons. The words of Franklin D. Roosevelt more than half a century ago - "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" - are still, Lee said, for the most part accurate today.
Anthrax, the most publicized of the biological weapons, has proven far more difficult to transmit and far less untreatable than previously assumed. Even in the recent outbreak, of the 32,000 people suspected to have been exposed to anthrax and treated with antibiotics, only 23 confirmed contractions of the disease (11 inhalation, 12 cutaneous) and only five deaths (all inhalation) were reported. The figures contradict prior conjectures that inhalation anthrax was 95 percent fatal.
Lee suggested smallpox, on the other hand, poses a more serious threat. While spreading anthrax is difficult, smallpox is transmitted by human contact and carries a substantial mortality rate.
"We've suicide pilots and suicide bombers," said Lee. "A suicide sick-person is not beyond imagination."
In addition, smallpox immunizations ceased in 1979, a decision, Lee warned, which leaves a large part of the population - and this generation in particular - as vulnerable as "sitting ducks."
Lee said the most realistic threat, however, is not a fatal bioterrorist attack but one designed to temporarily incapacitate individuals through something as simple as food poisoning. The areas most vulnerable are where food is stored in one place for distribution to many, such as school food services and other institutions with central cooks and kitchens.
Buffalo, while not a major city in the sense that "we don't have a World Trade Center or Pentagon or Congress building," is, nevertheless, an international city because of the Buffalo-Niagara International Airport and bridges between the United States and Canada. The city could be a target, Lee admits, "because of what goes through here."
Yet, all in all, Lee said he considers the real danger of bioterrorism is to the psyches of individuals and communities, rather than their physical health and safety. Terrorism is designed to instill fear, to alter people's daily activities and to demonstrate vulnerability. Horror, anger, panic, scapegoatism, paranoia and losing faith in the system, Lee said, are the true threats of bioterrorism on individuals and communities like Buffalo.
The planning, time and resources necessary to accomplish large-scale acts of terrorism, however, make the actual risk of attack minimal. "The key is alertness to what's possible," he said.
The lecture series, prompted by the events of Sept. 11 and the subsequent war on terrorism, is sponsored by UB's Council on International Studies and Programs in conjunction with the Office of the Vice Provost for International Education.
"The members of the Council on International Studies and Programs thought it would be a good idea to sponsor a lecture series providing a variety of perspectives (though of necessity not all perspectives) on these developments and their implications for the future," explained CISP Secretary John Wood.
"It is hoped the lectures will foster and contribute to a constructive discussion of relevant issues," he said.
Jehan Balba, a foreign exchange student from Kuwait present at the event, shared his perspective on the U.S. situation.
"If I were in Kuwait, I wouldn't worry at all. But I don't want to leave America or anything," Balba said. "Since the events of Sept. 11, I know that anything is possible, but I don't feel like there is a clear and present danger now."
The next lecture in the series, "September 11: Views from the Arab World," will be held Wednesday, Feb. 13 at 3 p.m. in the Student Union Theater. Dr. Bader Dweik, who came from Jordan and received his doctorate at UB, will host the event. The series is free and open to the public.
